1 The Pakistan-India Conundrum: A Historical Survey

Abstract The current research presents an overview of history of bilateral relations between Pakistan and India that have been adversarial since their inception in 1947. The study has also analyzed initiatives such as The Indus Waters Treaty (1960), the Tashkent Agreement (1966), The Simla Accord (1972) and the Lahore Declaration (1999) taken by Pakistan and India to build confidence and lower the intensity of the conflict. However, Pakistan and India have still to do concrete efforts to make their relations as durable and have ability to absorb political shocks like 2008 Mumbai incident. The study portrays Pakistan-India bilateral relationship as pendulum like movement. If they have taken one step forward they have moved two steps backward. However, Pakistan-India relations are moving towards maturity. And, peace overtures like the Composite Dialogue (2004) may have significant impact upon Pakistan-India relations provided that the negotiation process is not disrupted and disconnected. The primary objective of this research is to present an overall view of Pakistan-India relations in the backdrop of irritants that have made Pakistan-India normalization process as hostage to them

Introduction Since their inception in August 1947, Pakistan and India have antagonistic relationship and nature of their relations has been jittery except brief periods of rapprochement. Pakistan and India have fought three wars (1948, 1965, 1971) the Kargil crisis (1999) and several war-like situations like deployments of military troops at international border in 2002. History of Pak-India relations reveals that it has been adversarial relationship. There are many factors that have dictated Pak-India relations. The factors, generally, include the existence of various ideologies or religions, the legacies of colonial rule, the role of personalities, the imperfection of domestic as well as international political system, mutual images. (Cheema, 1999) While analyzing the causes of animosity between Pakistan and India, one needs to look on number of factors. These include the mutual perceptions and distrust, the role of historians, the role of outsiders and the divergent policy pursuits. Also, an important factor is legacy of bitter relationship between political parties i.e. the Congress and All India Muslim League, pursuing interests of the Hindus and the Muslims in British India respectively uring the pre-independence period. The angry Congress-League disputes, emerged in the last decade of the Independence movement, eventually set the stage for India and Pakistan's inability to live with one another in a reasonably amicable fashion.

310 Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 35, No. 1 The primary objective of this research is to present a general outlook of Pakistan-India relations while analyzing irritants that have made Pakistan-India normalization process as hostage to them. This study has two parts. First part presents an overall view of Pakistan-India relations. Pakistan-India relations may not be portrayed as ideal cordial relations between the two neighbors such as USA and Canada. However, leadership of both countries has taken different initiatives to dilute the intensity of mutual enmity. The second part of the study presents an analysis of important initiatives taken by Pakistan and India. In studying Pakistan-India relations it is convenient to divide the period into different phases with regard to key junctures in Pak-India relations. Consequently, Pakistan-India relations can be divided into five phases. First phase (1947-1972), second phase (1972-1988), third phase (1988-1999), fourth phase (1999-2004) and the last phase covers the period from 2004 to the present. A. First Phase (1947-1972) Political relations between Pakistan and India have remained adversarial since their independence. Just after independence, Pakistan and India indulged in a war over Kashmir in 1948 that resulted into conflictual relationship and shaped future course of bilateral relationship between the two neighbors. Under the partition plan of 3rd June 1947, all princely states were to accede to India or Pakistan. The rulers of some of larger states had intentions to seek independence but they did not receive much support.(Sattar, 2013, p. 24) The rulers of all 560 princely states were supposed to accede to Pakistan or India keeping in view geographical proximity as well as wishes of their masses. All the princely states followed the partition formula except Hyderabad, Junagadh and Jammu and Kashmir. The Nizam of Hyderabad aspired to independence but India invaded and occupied his state in 1948.(Choudhury, 1971, p. 42) When the Muslim ruler of the Hindu-majority state of Junagadh announced accession to Pakistan on 15 August 1947, the Indian government protested and termed the decision by the ruler was in utter violation of the principle of the partition.(S. M. a. L. Z. Burke, 1990) While rejecting Pakistan's offer to hold a plebiscite (S. M. Burke, 1974; Sattar, 2013, p. 24)India promptly invaded and occupied the state. However, regarding Jammu and Kashmir, India accepted the offer of accession by the ruler of Jammu and Kashmir, Maharaja Hari Singh. Resultantly, Kashmiri masses resisted against Maharaja' decision and tribesmen from Pakistan entered Kashmir to help their Kashmiri brethren. However, India sent its military troops to Kashmir while accepting accession to India that was utter violation of the principle of partition of British India. Thus, war broke out and India filed a complaint against Pakistan under Article 35 of Study VI of the Charter to stop giving assistance to the invaders. Pakistan also filed a counter-complaint, charging India with genocide and repudiating the validity of the accession offered by Maharaja. In this way, newly emerged independent neighbors indulged in adversarial relationship. Kashmir war, stoppage of river water by India in April 1948, lack of parity at military level between Pakistan and India as well as Indian denial to give access Pakistani jute to Indian markets are the factors that formulated Indian threat perception among Pakistani security making circles. This threat perception induced Pakistan to join US sponsored military pacts such as South East Treaty Organization (SEATO, 1954), Central Treaty Organization (CENTO, 1955) and also became military ally while signing Mutual Defense Assistance Agreement (1954) and Bilateral Defense Cooperation Agreement 1959).(H. A. Rizvi, 1993)After Pakistan's joining to US sponsored defense pacts Indian leadership started to refrain from its promises regarding settlement of Kashmir dispute according to the UN resolutions of 13 August 1948 and 5 January 1949. Indian leadership announced that ground realities had been changed after intervention by external powers so India had no reason to abide by its previous commitments at UN.(Sattar, 2013, p. 33) In the backdrop of Sino-Indian war (1962) the Western countries and US started to provide military and financial assistance to India to help it against China. Due to pressure exerted by US and UK India and Pakistan started negotiations on 16 May 1963 known as Bhuto-Sawarn talks but these talks remained as unsuccessful. (Jyotindra Nath Dixit, 2002) Pakistan and India indulged in war first in the Rann of Kutch area (April-May 1965), and then the full-fledged armed conflict (September 1965). With mediation and provision of good offices by then Soviet Union at Tashkent in 1966, Pakistan and India concluded an agreement known as Tashkent Declaration on 10 January 1966. However, spirit of Tashkent declaration could not prevail due to sudden death of Indian Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri and lack of Soviet interest in settling of Pak-India controversies. India and Pakistan again went to war against the backdrop of the civil strife in the then East Pakistan in November-December 1971. This war ended as Pakistani troops surrendered to Indian troops in East Pakistan on 16December 1971 resulting emergence of Bangladesh. Pakistan and India signed Simla Pact on 2 July 1972 as post-war agreement that culminated war and laid down principles to govern future course of bilateral relations between them. Importantly, the Simla Pact obliged both countries to "settle their differences by peaceful means through bilateral negotiations" (The Simla Agreement, 1972). B. Second Phase (1972-1988) Pakistan-India relations were marked by the concurrent acquirement of positive and negative interaction. Though there were periods of goodwill and relative harmony yet these were short-lived. However, they never stopped talking on the contentious issues and took the initiative to revive the dialogue whenever there was a downward slide or a standoff in their relations. Resultantly they kept their differences with in manageable limits. During early 1980s, Pakistan and India faced two major crises that put them into high alert situation and a war-like situation emerged between them. In 1984 Pakistani forces were on high alert in the wake of intelligence reports that India was making preparation for an air strike on Pakistani uranium enrichment plant at Kahuta.(Sattar, 2013, p. 214) After Pakistan's message to India considering such attack as an act of aggression, this crisis melts down. Another volatile situation emerged in the winter of 1986-87 when India decided to hold the largest combined military exercise in South Asian history, code-named Brass-tacks. (Bajpai, Chari, Cheema, Cohen, & Ganguly, 1995, p. 15) This exercise foresaw the gathering of a quarter of a million troops, nine army divisions, five armored brigades and 1300 tanks in western Rajasthan at places just 50 kilometres from Pakistan border giving the capability to launch a fierce strike into Pakistan(Sattar, 2013, p. 215) Pakistan also decided to extend its military exercises in December 1986 and moved troops of some formations to forward areas north of the Sutlej river opposite to the Indian town of Fazilka and west of the river Ravi in Sialkot district.(Sattar, 2013, p. 215) In the wake of communications between two sides at various levels, Pakistan and India signed an agreement on 4 February 1987 regarding sector-by-sector disengagement, deactivation of forward air bases and return of forces to their peacetime locations. While quoting David J. Karl of the Pacific Council on Foreign Policy, Abdul Sattar, former Foreign Minister of Pakistan has termed the Brass-tacks as a stan Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 35, No. 1 crisis that brought Pakistan and India "closer to the brink of war than any other crisis since 1970".(Sattar, 2013, p. 216) C. Third Phase (1988-1999) The third phase (1988-1999) in Pak-India relations depicts relatively calm relationship despite incidents like Charar-e- Sharif crisis and the 1998 nuclear tests. With restoration of democracy in Pakistan particularly after coming of Benazir Bhutto in power in 1988 and Rajiv Gandhi in India, there was an excitement in political circles and the media that the two young leaders of Pakistan and India, lacking of the burdens of controversies of partition, would open a new study of practical and friendly relations between the two neighbors.(Gupta, 2005, p. 87) Two visits of Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi to Pakistan in December 1988 for participation in the SAARC summit conference and an official visit in July 1989 resulted in significant improvement in their relations. However, the goodwill generated by these visits did not last long as new wave of resistance movement against Indian occupation started in Indian held Jammu and Kashmir.(Rizvi, 2004, p. 20) Pakistan and India signed an Agreement on the Non-Attack of Nuclear Facilities in 1988. This agreement made an obligation to both countries to provide an annual exchange of lists having a detail of the locations of all nuclear related facilities in each country. Both the countries pledged not to attack the listed facilities. When lists were exchanged in 1992, each side reportedly left off one enrichment facility.(Krepon, 1998, p. 190) Pakistan- India relations during this phase remained as less tense because political leadership of both sides manifested maturity to deal with their deep-rooted conflict. Therefore, the decade of 1988-1999 witnessed significant positive developments in history of bilateral relations of Indo-Pakistan. Several agreements were signed to build confidence between them. An Agreement on Prior Notification of Military Exercises was concluded on April 6, 1991. According to it, prior requisition of notification is essential for exercises involving ten thousand or more troops in specific location. This agreement also renounced the both countries to hold military exercise in the close proximity especially within five kilometers of the border.(Krepon, 1998, p. 194) Also, an Agreement on the Violation of Airspace was signed in April 1992 and ratified in August 1992. The agreement refrained both countries to fly combat aircraft within ten kilometers of each other's airspace while the limit for unarmed transport as well as logistics aircraft is fixed as one kilometer away from the border. Though flights within this range for supply or rescue missions are permitted yet prior notification is mandatory. Pakistan and India also concluded "A Joint Declaration on the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons" in August 1992. They pledged not to develop, produce, acquire, or use chemical weapons. They also ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention in 1997. The overt- nuclearisation of South Asia in 1998 created stability in bilateral relationship between Pakistan and India. Fear of mutual assured destruction by the use of nuclear weapons barred them to indulge in a full- fledged war. In this security milieu leadership of both countries realized intricacy and concluded an agreement known as Lahore Declaration in the wake of Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's visit to Lahore on February 20-21, 1999. However, the spirit of the Lahore Declaration dashed to the ground in the wake of Kargil crisis erupted in 1999. After Kargil crisis, India, considered itself as betrayed by Pakistan in the form form of Kargil crisis, was reluctant to restart peace process