Chapter 17: The Russo-Austrian Secret Treaty

Causing trouble for Prussia was just an offhand action for Franz; the Austrian government would not invest too much resources in it. What's most important now is still the development of the domestic scene.

As the Prusso-Danish War broke out again, Russo-Austrian negotiations also came to an end. After nearly half a year of effort, the two countries finally reached a consensus on their respective interests.

On March 21, 1849, the Austrian sent Weisenberg as an ambassador to Russia, and the Russian Foreign Minister, Karl Vasilyevich Nesselrode, signed the "Russo-Austrian Trade Agreement" in St. Petersburg.

Treaty contents:

1. Both countries grant each other most favored nation status, and customs duties in commercial exchanges must not exceed those of a third country.

2. The two countries form a strategic trade partnership, adhering to the principle of free trade. (If one party goes to war with a third country, trade between the two main parties will continue as usual.)

3. ...

These hastily drafted trade agreements were clearly not the result of half a year's effort by the two governments. What both sides really valued was the secret treaty they signed, including the "Russo-Austrian Military Alliance" and "Russo-Austrian Division of Power".

"Russo-Austrian Military Alliance" contents:

1. From the date of the signing of this treaty, the two countries formally establish a military alliance.

2. If one party is invaded by an external military force, it will be regarded as a declaration of war on both countries.

3. When one party declares war on a third country, they can ask the other party for assistance, including material and military aid.

4. ...

Undoubtedly, the "Russo-Austrian Military Alliance" is a continuation of the "Treaty of Berlin", even taking it a step further, except that the contracting nation no longer includes Prussia.

Because of the Prusso-Danish War, Tsar Nicholas I was very cold towards the Kingdom of Prussia, and the outbreak of this war also marked the end of the "Northern Three Courts" era.

Compared to the military alliance, the "Russo-Austrian Division of Power" is the cornerstone of the two countries' alliance, with both countries taking what they need and getting everything they wanted.

The treaty stipulates:

1. Austria recognizes the Russian Empire's complete sovereignty over the Black Sea straits, the Dardanelles, and the adjacent lands. (Including Constantinople, the Anatolian Peninsula, and parts of the Balkans.)

2. Austria recognizes Russia's interests in the Far East.

3. The Austrian government recognizes Russia's interests in Central Asia.

4. Austria recognizes Russia's rights in Persia.

5. Both countries jointly divide the interests of the Balkan Peninsula and the Mediterranean.

6. The Russian Empire recognizes Austria's sovereignty over the South German region.

7. The Russian Empire recognizes Austria's interests in the Danube Basin.

8. The Russian Empire recognizes Austria's interests in Italy.

9. The Russian Empire acknowledges the benefits Austria gains from its overseas colonies.

...

Both sides have made very clear agreements: You support my acquisition of the Black Sea coastal region, and I support your annexation of South Germany. Together, we can divide the hegemony of the Balkans and the Mediterranean.

Outside of these core interests, as long as there is no conflict of interest, we will support each other.

Russia and Austria have reached an agreement on their respective expansions. This means that the Strait Convention led by the British is now void. Without Austria's support, it would be difficult for Britain and France to suppress Russia's ambitions in the Near East.

According to the agreement, Austria will obtain regions of South Germany, Bosnia and Herzegovina, most of Serbia and Romania, and some parts of Bulgaria.

In terms of territorial size, it's less than half of what Russia gets. Economically, there's no comparison.

In this era, the Black Sea coastal regions are developed. The essence of the Ottoman Empire is here. On the Austrian side, apart from South Germany, other areas have not yet been developed.

Seeing the contrast in gains, Franz understood why historically, Russia and Austria would fall out. Russia was taking too much, and Austria became envious.

Most importantly, if Russia's ambitions are achieved, the Austrian Empire would be restless. Franz originally thought the interests of the Black Sea straits would satisfy Russia, perhaps with half of the Balkans. But the reality proved him wrong; Russia also aimed for the Anatolian Peninsula.

Given Russia's appetite, Austria recognized Russia's acquisition of the Anatolian Peninsula, and Russia made concessions in the Balkans.

Franz didn't care about the agreed division of power in the Balkans. Securing Belgrade was his priority.

The current Austrian Empire isn't that ambitious. If they were, Austria would be overwhelmed. If not for the relatively low population of the Balkans at this time, they wouldn't dare touch it.

Yet to avoid suspicion of a scheme due to Austria's limited appetite, Franz boldly speculated that celebrations were underway in the court of St. Petersburg.

Historically, Russia broke the Strait Convention in exchange for helping Austria suppress the Hungarian revolt. In this timeline, Austria handled the revolt without chaos, thus no aid was needed.

If the Strait Convention still existed, the Crimean War wouldn't happen. Russia couldn't possibly face Britain, France, and Austria alone. This was also why Austria, after betraying Russia historically, was shunned. Britain and France believed that if Austria hadn't initially condoned Russia, the war wouldn't have erupted.

"Your Majesty, this treaty is too unfavorable for us. If realized, Russia will become unstoppable!" Prime Minister Felix frowned.

Franz countered, "Without Russia's expansion, could we annex South Germany? Which European country wants to see Austria continue to grow?"

Metternich exclaimed, "Your Majesty, once Russia expands, it's difficult to contain them. Moreover, can we truly annex the South German states? If Russia occupies those areas before we integrate South Germany, Austria's future will be bleak."

Franz calmly replied, "Don't be blinded by interests. On the surface, the treaty favors Russia, but can they truly sustain this plan? The Ottomans will surely resist, dragging the war on. France has interests in the Near East and won't allow Russia's expansion. England will support the Ottomans and might even collaborate with France. Even if Russia is formidable, they might eventually wear down. Unless they stop after Constantinople and defend it, the war might go on. Given enough time, Austria might even surpass Russia."

Franz laughed thinking about France. Since the 18th century, France had been losing territory, benefiting Britain and the U.S., the Austrian Habsburg dynasty also played its part in their rise.

Finally, Franz convinced the cabinet. The signed treaty had irreversible effects. In theory, as long as Britain and France are committed, Russia's ambitions would face challenges. If Russia chooses a conservative strategy, there's even less to worry about. In 30-50 years, Austria could industrialize and assimilate South Germany.