The Temptation

Victor wasn't surprised by Prince Doran's silence. He wouldn't expect someone like Doran to just believe whatever a nine-year-old, even one with a reputation for being smart, would say. He wouldn't be a qualified heir to the greatest noble family of Dorne if he did. But the news was certainly a shock for him, as Victor captured the sweat gathering on his forehead.

After a long period of silence Doran slowly started talking.

"Victor, no matter what you think will happen, this engagement is no longer breakable nor will anyone in Dorne agree to break it. The Targaryen king would never allow such a disgrace and the fire of war would burn all over Dorne. Even if you are right, which I don't necessarily believe, the fact of Elias marriage is set in stone. You are smart you must be aware of this, so your plan should not be about breaking the marriage but saving Elia afterwards. Tell me your thoughts and reason."

For the first time Victor was a little impressed by the future heir of Dorne. He slowly started talking about his thoughts.

"The emotional part of the reason for my offer is my friendship with Oberyn. Even though I admit this part is relatively low, compared to the interest of House Di Natale, it certainly exists.

The rational part of my reason is that I seek a stable alliance in Westeros. I think Dorne is my best option as it is very close to Lys, the foundation of my family, and I have many ideas to improve the value of Dorne if I have the chance. Saving the oldest lady of House Martell from humiliation and death seems like a major sign of goodwill for me and would lead to a great foundation for an alliance. What do you think prince Doran, do you believe me up until this point?"

This time Doran didn't take too much time to deliberate Victors words and replied rather quickly.

"Not too many problems at this point. But the basis for all of this is still the demise of a dynastie that lasted for hundreds of years and has a capable heir that is going to marry one of the major seven noble families. Why would I believe this theory and bet my family fortune on it?" 

Victor expected this question long ago. In the end it all depends on whether he can convince Doran that the risk of his plan would be way lower than the expected benefits.

"Let's talk about the facts that we already know:

The current king is getting increasingly dangerous and unpredictable. You could even go as far as call him insane. No subjects want someone like this as a king, as he could kill you at any time for some nonsense reason. In history no king would end very well, if all his subjects slowly started to fear him. At least this makes the chance for rebellion a lot higher.

The next point is that the relationship between The Hand of the King Tywin Lannister and the current king is getting increasingly bad. After the engagement of your sister and Rhaegar was known this relationship turned so bad that Tywin even resigned. In case a rebellion happens the Lannister wouldn't care one bit for the Targaryen's, they might even repay this debt.

And lastly... the Erryn, the North and the Riverlands are close allies. If there is a huge conflict between either of those regions and the Targaryen family, all three of them will probably fight the throne. Let's not forget that Robert Baratheon of the Stormlands is very close with Eddard Stark of the North. And in case a war happens I would trust the least in the loyalty of House Tyrell. Lady Olenna is a political speculator, but certainly not a loyal subject.

In conclusion, there is a extremely high chance for rebellion as long as this powder keg of possible reasons is getting ignited. And once the ignition starts, for whatever reason, the frail Elia Martell certainly won't survive this explosion. What do you think, Doran?"

The two brothers of House Martell were getting increasingly convinced that the chance of Victors prediction happening is certainly not low. Doran was no longer thinking about whether to agree to the alliance between House Martell and House Di Natale, but what his bargaining chips were. He needed Victor to rescue Elia Martell once some accident really happened and for Victor to agree to an alliance with a noble house that would be on the opposing site of the future king of Westeros, whoever that might be. Of course, this was only in case this hypothetical future really happened. 

And even if nothing happened in the end and Elia turned out to become the future Queen, House Martell would still profit extremely by having an alliance with House Di Natale. Whether their industrial chains and underlying profit or their control of the biggest and most important trade route of Westeros were invaluable assets for House Martell and Dorne. Doran decided to start his offensive negotiations.

"Victor, it seems like you have all the good cards in your hands and House Martell has only losing cards, according to your prediction at least. But somebody like you would never do a loss-making business. There must be something you want from House Martell and Dorne and it will certainly not be low in value. We now know your cards and what you can offer. But I will never sacrifice the interests of House Martell and the Dornish just because of my sister. So, choose very wisely before you ask me for something, because my sister's life might not be as valuable as you think it is."

Doran finished his first try to tempt Victor and simultaneously gave the angry Oberyn a stare. He didn't need some stubborn idiot to mix emotions with interests. This was no longer about private family affairs, but purely about the future of two big interest groups, the nobles of Lys and the nobles of Dorne.